As the stock market fell to five-year lows during the week, investors moved to less risky investments. Treasury markets were the primary beneficiary of the flight to safety, and Treasury yields reached the lowest levels in decades. Mortgage rates fell during the week as well, but to a much lesser extent.
The news during the week on inflation pointed to lower future levels. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report showed a large monthly decline in the overall index due to lower oil prices. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, saw its first monthly decline in over 25 years, and the annual rate fell to 2.2% from 2.5% in September. Oil prices have continued to move even lower this month, which will be reflected in the November data. Lower expected inflation is almost always a good thing for mortgage rates. In the housing sector, October Housing Starts fell to a record low, and Building Permits, a leading indicator, fell 12%. These were weak numbers, but a decline in new home building will reduce the number of unsold homes on the market, which should help to stabilize home prices sooner. The recent decline in home prices has one bright spot. Combined with relatively low mortgage rates, homes have reached their highest level of affordability in four years, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The NAHB index compares the cost of paying for a home, based on average home prices and mortgage rates, to the median household income. Increased affordability allows more people to participate in the housing market and should boost demand. For more information or for free mortgage advice please email me at corey@frontstreetmtg.com.
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